The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its June 2026 revenue forecast on Friday, June 26. Revenue projections were revised upward for the 2025-27, 2027-29 and 2029-31 biennia. More background on state revenue forecasts including acronym definitions can be accessed on our website.
Overall, compared to February, the total revenue (the sum of GF-S, WEIA, ELTA, and OPA) forecast projects that state revenue will increase by $960.6 million for the current 2025-27 biennium (+1.3%), by $1.784 billion for the 2027-29 biennium (+2.2%), and by $5 billion for the 2029-31 biennium (+6.2%), driven by changes enacted during the 2026 legislative session. The increases are largely due to non-economic factors such as new legislation from the 2026 legislative session, the impacts of which include a new tax on high incomes, reduced sales tax exemptions, and increased B&O tax rates on prescription drugs. However, there has been reduced economic activity since the February forecast, as well as lower real estate excise tax collections and lower than expected housing construction. National and international factors such as weak employment growth, tariffs, and the Iran war create uncertainty and continue to pose a risk to the state.
In February, the ERFC highlighted higher than expected revenue growth from various taxes as well as improvements in employment rates and real estate excise tax collections. As a result, they projected an increase in revenue for 2025-27 and 2027-29. However, the ERFC expressed concerns about federal trade policy, reductions in federal government spending and employment, and geopolitical conflicts.
Since February, expectations for U.S. GDP growth, oil prices, and Washington employment growth have worsened. Additionally, growth in personal income in Washington has been revised down. Meanwhile, Washington exports have grown, and the ERFC expects a slight increase in housing permits. Otherwise, there are no new concerns compared to the February forecast.
General Fund-State Revenue
Below is the total projected Near General Fund-State (NGF-S) revenue for each biennium:
- $76.2 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, 1.3% above the previous forecast.
$82.2 billion for the 2027-29 biennium, 2.2% above the previous forecast.
$85.7 billion for the 2029-31 biennium, a 6.2% increase over the previous biennium.
Below is the total projected revenue for accounts from which the University receives dedicated funding:
- Forecasted revenue dedicated to WEIA increased by $71.9 million for the 2025-27 biennium, decreased by $72 million for the 2027-29 biennium, and decreased by $77 million for the 2029-31 biennium. Forecasted revenue is $1.8 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, $2.1 billion for the 2027-29 biennium, and $2.2 billion for the 2029-31 biennium.
- Forecasted revenue for ELTA increased by $1.3 billion in the 2025-27 biennium, decreased by $139.6 million for the 2027-29 biennium, and decreased by $108 million for the 2029-31 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $4.1 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, $2.8 billion for the 2027-29 biennium, and $3.1 billion for the 2029-31 biennium.
Stay tuned for updates, including the next state revenue forecast in September, on the FPB blog.