The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its September 2025 revenue forecast on Tuesday, September 23. Revenue projections were revised downward for the 2025-27 and 2027-29 biennia, as well as for the 2023-25 biennium that ended on June 30. More background on state revenue forecasts including acronym definitions can be accessed on our website.
Overall, total revenue (the sum of GF-S, WEIA, ELTA, and OPA) declined by $13 million for the 2023-25 biennium compared to the June forecast. Additionally, the forecast projects state revenue will decrease by $412 million for the current 2025-27 biennium (-0.6%) and by $477 million for the 2027-29 biennium (-0.6%) compared to the previous forecast. These decreases are largely due to higher than expected inflation, tariffs and restrictive trade policies, and slowing employment growth, due, in part, to federal employment and spending reductions.
In June, the ERFC expressed concern and uncertainty around projected revenue due to slowing revenue growth, tariffs, federal fiscal policy, and the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite this uncertainty, the ERFC projected increases in revenue due to slowing inflation and new taxes and fees passed by the legislature during the 2025 legislative session. The September 2025 forecast is very similar to what was forecasted in June. While forecasted revenue is down, these declines are relatively small and reflect similar concerns to what was highlighted in June. However, employment growth has been identified as a growing concern in this forecast. Real estate and retail activity has also declined recently, corresponding to decreased revenue.
On the positive side, second quarter GDP grew by 3.3% and consumer spending remained strong. Stock markets also rose to record highs, tariffs were lower and shorter-lived than expected, and several preliminary trade agreements with the UK, EU, Japan, and others suggest that trade policy may improve in the future.
General Fund-State Revenue
Below is the total preliminary and projected General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue for each biennium:
$67.12 billion for the 2023-25 biennium, 0% below the previous forecast.
$74.34 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, 0.6% below the previous forecast.
$79.54 billion for the 2027-29 biennium, 0.6% below the previous forecast.
Below is the total preliminary and projected GF-S revenue for accounts from which the University receives dedicated funding:
Final revenue dedicated to the Workforce Education Investment Account (WEIA) increased by $11.9 million for the 2023-25 biennium. However, forecasted revenue for WEIA declined by $3.1 million for the 2025-27 biennium and by $6.8 million for the 2027-29 biennium. Final WEIA revenue is now $966.9 million for the 2023-25 biennium and forecasted revenue is $1.56 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, and $1.91 billion for the 2027-29 biennium.
Final revenue for the Education Legacy Trust Account (ELTA) revenue was $22.0 million higher than forecasted, ending at $2.43 billion. Forecasted revenue decreased by $77.7 million in the 2025-27 biennium and by $83.0 million for the 2027-29 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $2.69 billion for the 2025-27 biennium and $2.88 billion for the 2027-29 biennium.
The next revenue forecast will be released in November and will inform the development of Governor Ferguson’s 2026 supplemental budget proposals to the Legislature. Stay tuned to for updates regarding the next state legislative session, which will begin in January 2026.