The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its February 2026 revenue forecast on Monday, February 16. Revenue projections were revised upward for both the 2025-27 and 2027-29 biennia. More background on state revenue forecasts including acronym definitions can be accessed on our website.
Overall, compared to November, the total revenue (the sum of GF-S, WEIA, ELTA, and OPA) forecast projects that state revenue will increase by $827.4 million for the current 2025-27 biennium (+1.1%) and by $1.028 billion for the 2027-29 biennium (+1.3%). The initial forecast for the 2029-31 biennium is now available and is estimated at $80.7 billion (+0.2% over 2027-29). The increases are largely due to higher-than-expected revenue growth from sales and use taxes, business and occupation tax, public utility tax, and non-cigarette tobacco products tax. Since the November forecast, personal incomes and employment rates have improved and, despite a slight decrease in housing construction, real estate excise tax collections increased. National and international factors such as federal trade policy, reductions in federal government spending and employment, and geopolitical conflicts continue to pose a risk to the state.
In November, the ERFC highlighted higher-than-expected revenue growth from retail sales, real estate, business and occupation (B&O), public utility, and non-cigarette tobacco product taxes. As a result, they projected an increase in general fund revenue for 2025-27. In contrast, the ERFC expressed long-term concerns about housing permits, total employment, personal income, and other national and international factors. This uncertainty led the ERFC to project decreases in revenue to GF-S, ELTA, OPA and WEIA for the 2027-29 biennium.
Since November, expectations for U.S. GDP growth, oil prices, and national employment have improved, while expectations for Washington’s employment growth have slightly worsened. Additionally, growth in personal income is lower in Washington than in the U.S. overall, although the forecast for nominal personal income is slightly improved. Exports have also improved, and the forecast calls for a slight increase in housing permits. Otherwise, there are no new concerns compared to the November forecast.
General Fund-State Revenue
Below is the total projected Near General Fund-State (NGF-S) revenue for each biennium:
- $75.3 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, 1.1% above the previous forecast.
$80.4 billion for the 2027-29 biennium, 1.3% above the previous forecast.
$80.6 billion for the 2029-31 biennium, a 0.2% increase over the previous biennium.
Below is the total projected revenue for accounts from which the University receives dedicated funding:
- Forecasted revenue dedicated to WEIA increased by $172 million for the 2025-27 biennium and by $249 million for the 2027-29 biennium. Forecasted revenue is $1.8 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, and $2.2 billion for the 2027-29 biennium.
- Forecasted revenue for ELTA increased by $7 million in the 2025-27 biennium and by $47 million for the 2027-29 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $2.8 billion for the 2025-27 biennium and $3.0 billion for the 2027-29 biennium.
This revenue forecast will inform the development of the Senate and House budgets, which will be released later in February, and the Final Compromise Budget, which will be released before the end of session on March 12. Stay tuned for updates on the FPB blog.