The Washington State Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its November 2025 revenue forecast on Tuesday, November 18. Revenue projections were revised upward for the 2025-27 biennium and downward for the 2027-29 biennium. More background on state revenue forecasts including acronym definitions can be accessed on our website.
Overall, compared to September, the total revenue (the sum of GF-S, WEIA, ELTA, and OPA) forecast projects that state revenue will increase by $105.4 million for the current 2025-27 biennium (+0.1%) and decrease by $184.9 million for the 2027-29 biennium (-0.2%). The increase for 2025-27 is largely due to higher-than-expected revenue growth from retail sales, real estate, business and occupation (B&O), public utility, and non-cigarette tobacco product taxes. The decrease for 2027-29 is largely due to worsening expectations for housing permits, total employment (construction employment in particular), and personal income. National and international factors such as trade policy, tariffs, reductions in federal government spending and employment, and geopolitical conflicts continue to impact the state’s economy.
In September, the ERFC expressed concern and uncertainty around projected revenue due to the economic impacts of tariffs, federal changes in employment and spending, slow employment growth, and intensifying conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East which led to higher energy prices. This uncertainty led the ERFC to project decreases in revenue to GF-S, ELTA, OPA and WEIA.
Since September, expectations for U.S. GDP growth, inflation, and Washington retail sales and exports improved, while expectations for Washington’s housing permits and employment worsened. Additionally, limited federal data has been available to inform the November forecast due to the shutdown. Otherwise, the concerns remain similar to those in the September forecast.
General Fund-State Revenue
Below is the total projected Near General Fund-State (NGF-S) revenue for each biennium:
- $74.5 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, 0.1% above the previous forecast.
$79.4 billion for the 2027-29 biennium, 0.2% below the previous forecast.
Below is the total projected revenue for accounts from which the University receives dedicated funding:
- Forecasted revenue dedicated to WEIA increased by $21.9 million for the 2025-27 biennium and by $27.5 million for the 2027-29 biennium. Forecasted revenue is $1.6 billion for the 2025-27 biennium, and $1.9 billion for the 2027-29 biennium.
- Forecasted revenue for ELTA increased by $90.9 million in the 2025-27 biennium and by $62.9 million for the 2027-29 biennium. Forecasted ELTA revenue is now $2.8 billion for the 2025-27 biennium and $2.9 billion for the 2027-29 biennium.
This revenue forecast will inform the development of Governor Ferguson’s 2026 supplemental budget proposals to the Legislature, which will be released in December. Stay tuned for updates regarding the next state legislative session, which will begin in January 2026.